In January 2025, the U.S. economy displayed a blend of resilience and new challenges appearing in different sectors.
Tendencias de Actividad Empresarial y Empleo
El índice S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output, que sigue el desempeño de los sectores manufacturero y de servicios, cayó a 52.4 en enero desde 55.4 en diciembre, alcanzando su nivel más bajo desde abril. A pesar de esta desaceleración, el índice se mantuvo por encima del umbral de 50, lo que sugiere que la expansión continúa. Principalmente, el sector servicios contribuyó a este freno, mientras que la manufactura mostró crecimiento por primera vez en siete meses, impulsada por expectativas de regulaciones más flexibles y menores impuestos bajo la actual administración. Cabe destacar que las empresas incrementaron la contratación al ritmo más rápido en dos años y medio, lo que indica optimismo sobre las condiciones económicas futuras.
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which monitors the manufacturing and services sectors, declined to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, marking the lowest level since April. Despite this slowdown, the index remained above the 50 threshold, indicating continued expansion. The services sector primarily contributed to this deceleration, while manufacturing experienced growth for the first time in seven months, driven by expectations of looser regulations and lower taxes under the current administration. Notably, businesses increased hiring at the fastest rate in two and a half years, signaling optimism about future economic conditions.
In January, consumer confidence decreased for the second month in a row. The Conference Board announced a drop in its consumer confidence index to 104.1, down from 109.5 in December, which did not meet economists’ predictions. This decline illustrates increasing worries among Americans about present economic circumstances and future outlooks. Despite increased borrowing expenses, retail sales climbed by 0.4% in December, showing strong consumer spending over the holiday period. However, perceptions of current job market conditions became less optimistic, and short-term forecasts for income, business, and employment diminished, nearing levels that might indicate a possible recession.
Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
Inflation expectations among consumers have risen notably. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated that anticipated inflation for the next year increased to 3.3% in January, up from 2.8% in December, marking the highest level since May. Long-term inflation expectations also climbed to 3.3%, the highest since June 2008. These heightened expectations could influence actual inflation, as businesses may feel more justified in raising prices. In response to these developments, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 4.25% to 4.50% in its upcoming meeting, adopting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns.
El mercado laboral sigue siendo fuerte, con las solicitudes iniciales de beneficios por desempleo aumentando ligeramente en 6,000, alcanzando 223,000 en la semana que finalizó el 18 de enero de 2025. Este incremento marginal sugiere que los despidos siguen siendo bajos, incluso cuando las oportunidades laborales se vuelven más escasas debido a la cautela de los empleadores al expandir sus plantillas. La fortaleza del mercado laboral respalda la decisión de la Reserva Federal de pausar nuevos recortes en las tasas de interés mientras evalúa la duración necesaria de una política monetaria restrictiva para alcanzar una tasa de interés neutral.
Mercados Financieros y Sentimiento del Inversor
Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets have exhibited volatility in response to mixed economic data and corporate earnings reports. Major indexes closed lower, with the technology sector leading the downturn. Strong housing market data contrasted with a slowdown in business activity, while consumer sentiment declined. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators ahead of key economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The prospect of potential inflation stemming from proposed tariffs has also contributed to market uncertainty.